Reasonable Expectations for Star Hoops Recruits – Part IV April 19, 2009
Posted by flashbuzzer in Sports.add a comment
My previous post provided a synopsis of the college basketball careers of various members of the class of 2003.
This post focuses on players from the class of 2004. This class was perhaps best known for featuring a slew of preps-to-pros.
Again, many thanks to Statsheet for making this post possible.
Malik Hairston – Hairston was actually the only player on my 2004 First Team to play college basketball. He was a fine scorer, putting up 14.1 ppg, and rebounded well for a wing guard, putting up 5.1 rpg. His shooting needed some work, though, as he hit just 39.5% of his 3s and only 64.2% of his free throws. Oregon went 76-53 during his four years in Eugene, including making a trip to the Elite Eight in 2007.
Joe Crawford – somehow Crawford endured four years of the unique pressures that come with being a Kentucky Wildcat. As a testament to his work ethic, he improved his scoring and shooting over the course of his career, ending up with marks of 11.3 ppg and 43.7 fg%. Most of his other stats were fairly pedestrian, though, and Kentucky “only” went 90-45. The high point of Crawford’s career was a run to the Elite Eight in 2005 that ended with a loss to Michigan State.
Rudy Gay – Gay had a nice two-year run at Connecticut, though his detractors will always question his will to win during his time in Storrs. He put up solid stats, including marks of 13.6 ppg, 1.7 bpg and 1.3 spg. The Huskies went 53-12 and made it to the Elite Eight in 2006, losing to George Mason in an overtime thriller. Gay was then chosen by the Rockets with the #8 pick in the 2006 NBA Draft.
LaMarcus Aldridge – like Gay, Aldridge had a nice two-year college career. In particular, Texas benefited tremendously from rewarding Aldridge with increased playing time in his sophomore year. His solid career stats included marks of 13.5 ppg, 58.5 fg% and 8.2 rpg. The Longhorns went 50-18 and, like the Huskies, made it to the Elite Eight in 2006 before bowing out to LSU. Aldridge was then selected by the Bulls with the #2 pick in the 2006 NBA Draft.
Jordan Farmar – though Farmar’s UCLA career started off fairly slowly, he ended his two-year stay in Westwood as one of the better floor generals in Bruins history. He put up 13.3 ppg and received extensive playing time with 32.2 mpg, though average marks of 5.2 apg and 1.2 spg bar him from inclusion in the Bruins’ pantheon. UCLA went 50-18, making it to the Final Four in 2006 before losing to eventual national champion Florida. Farmar was then selected by the Lakers with the #26 pick in the 2006 NBA Draft.
DeMarcus Nelson – Nelson showed an impressive work ethic during his four years at Duke, as he showed steady improvement in most of the key statistical categories. Some of his solid stats included averages of 10.8 ppg, 46.6 fg% and 1.2 spg. Like most Duke players, Nelson had a superb win-loss record of 109-27, though the Blue Devils never made it past the Sweet 16 during his college career.
Marvin Williams – Williams was “one-and-done” in Chapel Hill, and his brief college career was a blast. In limited playing time (22.2 mpg), he put up 11.3 ppg, grabbed 6.6 rpg and shot 50.6/43.2/84.7. He played a key role on a Tar Heels squad that went 33-4 and won the national title by beating a superb Illinois squad. Williams was then selected by the Hawks with the #2 pick in the 2005 NBA Draft.
D.J. White – White’s four years at Indiana ended with him being coached by Kelvin Sampson, and we all know how that went for the Hoosiers. He put up strong stats, averaging 14.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg and 2 bpg along with a 56.2% mark from the floor. He also bounced back from a broken left foot that wiped out most of his sophomore year. Indiana went 80-45, though they never made it past the second round of the Big Dance.
Randolph Morris – Morris had a decent three-year stay in Lexington, though Big Blue Nation expected much more from him. His stat line included marks of 12.6 ppg and 6.0 rpg in limited playing time (23.8 mpg). He also shot 57.8% from the floor and put up a decent 66.1% from the charity stripe. Kentucky would have benefited from better play by Morris, though, as the Wildcats went 72-31 and never made it to the Final Four. Morris then signed with the New York Knicks in 2007; interestingly, he went undrafted in 2005 but had his eligibility restored by the NCAA even though he had hired an agent.
Darius Washington Jr. – Washington had an interesting two-year stay at Memphis. He proved to be a scoring guard, averaging 14.4 ppg while only dishing out 3.5 apg. While he played solid defense, averaging 1.5 spg, he’s perhaps most famous for missing a free throw in the 2005 Conference USA title game, giving Louisville the title instead. The Tigers went 55-20 and lost to UCLA in the 2006 Elite Eight. Washington then declared for the 2006 NBA Draft and was not selected.
Arron Afflalo – Afflalo finished his three-year stay at UCLA as one of the best players of the post-Ed O’Bannon era. His scoring was his hallmark, as he put up 14.8 ppg. Most of his other stats weren’t eye-popping, though, which keeps him from inclusion in the Bruins’ pantheon. For example, he only shot 37.3% from beyond the arc and put up a mere 3.5 rpg. The Bruins went 80-24 and made it to the Final Four in 2006 and 2007, losing to Florida both times. Afflalo was then selected by the Pistons with the #27 pick in the 2007 NBA Draft.
Mike Williams – Williams had a very quiet two-year stay in Austin. He never averaged more than 15 mpg and put up other pedestrian stats, such as marks of 3.2 and 2.3 ppg in his two seasons as a Longhorn. It’s safe to say that Aldridge made the bigger impact for Texas in this recruiting class. Williams then transferred to Cincinnati.
Glen Davis – “Big Baby” Davis had a great three-year run for LSU. His excellent stats included marks of 16.7 ppg and 9.6 rpg, though his 49.5% shooting from the floor could have been better. He saw extensive playing time (32 mpg) and played good defense, averaging 1.2 bpg and 1.1 spg. The Tigers went 64-34, losing to UCLA in the 2006 Final Four. Davis was then selected by the Sonics in the second round of the 2007 NBA Draft.
The overall results were revealing. Of the 60 profiled players who played college basketball, only five of them (Jawad Williams, Felton, McCants, Anthony and Marvin Williams) played on national title-winning teams. 11 others (Torbert, Ford, Simien, Paul Davis, Redick, Shelden Williams, Brown, Deng, Farmar, Afflalo and Glen Davis) played on teams that reached the Final Four at least once. 14 others (Fraser, Rodgers, Adams, Winston, Padgett, Brooks, Butch, Nardi, Hairston, Crawford, Aldridge, Morris, Washington Jr. and Mike Williams) played on teams that reached the Elite Eight at least once. 14 of the profiled players (Lee, Childress, Redick, Roberson, Shelden Williams, Brooks, Butch, Jones, Ibekwe, Hairston, Farmar, Nelson, Washington Jr. and Afflalo) captured at least one conference tournament title.
Based on these results, here are what I think constitute reasonable expectations for a star hoops recruit. First, the recruit must play well; to clarify, he should be regarded (by a reputable authority such as Statsheet) as one of his team’s top five players for the majority of his time in school. Second, his team should advance to the Elite Eight at least once during his career.
Hopefully rabid college fans will remember that quite a few factors go into either winning a national title or making a Final Four appearance, such as luck (March Madness), coaching, cohesiveness and the right amount of talent. On the last point, see the 2002 Maryland and 2006-07 Florida teams, which featured just one McDonald’s All-American among them (Corey Brewer).
Reasonable Expectations for Star Hoops Recruits – Part III April 11, 2009
Posted by flashbuzzer in Sports.Tags: 2003, college basketball, recruiting
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My previous post provided a synopsis of the college basketball careers of various members of the class of 2002.
This post focuses on players from the class of 2003. This class was perhaps best known for featuring the best prep star since Lew Alcindor…
Again, many thanks to Statsheet for making this post possible.
Chris Paul – Paul had a high-profile two-year run at Wake Forest. He was one of the best floor generals in the nation during his career, averaging 15.0 ppg, 6.3 apg and 2.5 spg. His stellar shooting was just icing on the cake; he put up 47.1/46.9/83.8. Paul led the Demon Deacons to a 48-16 record, though they never made it past the Sweet 16. He was then selected by the Hornets with the #4 pick in the 2005 NBA Draft.
Shannon Brown – The athletic Brown had a decent three-year career at Michigan State. He began to emerge as a dominant scorer in his junior year, putting up 17.2 ppg. For his career, he shot a sterling 83.1% from the foul line and averaged a solid 28.0 mpg, though his 36.4% shooting from beyond the arc should have been better. The Spartans went 66-31 and made it to the Final Four in Brown’s sophomore year; he was then selected by the Cavaliers with the #25 pick in the 2006 NBA Draft.
Drew Lavender – Lavender put up fairly pedestrian stats during his two years at Oklahoma. While he played solid defense, averaging 1.7 and 1.6 spg in his two seasons as a Sooner, he never cracked the 4 apg barrier, which is quite galling for a lead guard. The Sooners went 45-19 from 2003-05 and only appeared in the Big Dance once, bowing out in the second round. Lavender then transferred to Xavier.
Dion Harris – Harris happened to play for the Maize and Blue during their long NCAA Tournament drought. He played extensively for Michigan, averaging 32.1 mpg. While he shot a superb 80.4% from the foul line, marks of 38.1% from the field and 35.4% from the 3-point line didn’t cut the mustard. The Wolverines went 80-53 during Harris’ four years in Ann Arbor, winning the NIT title in his freshman year.
Luol Deng – Deng had a superb “one-and-done” run at Duke. He put up 15.1 ppg and 6.9 rpg, getting extensive playing time with a mark of 31.1 mpg. He also proved to be a capable defender, averaging 1.1 bpg and 1.3 spg. The Blue Devils went 31-6, advancing to the Final Four before falling to eventual national champ Connecticut. Deng was then chosen by the Suns with the #7 pick in the 2004 NBA Draft.
Kris Humphries – Humphries had a strange journey to Minnesota, as he originally signed with Duke before obtaining a release from his National Letter of Intent. He put up superb stats for the Golden Gophers in his one season of college ball, including marks of 21.7 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 1.1 bpg. Minnesota only went 12-18 and missed the postseason, though. Humphries was then selected by the Jazz with the #14 pick in the 2004 NBA Draft.
David Padgett – Padgett stayed one season in Lawrence and got some decent run, putting up 19.2 mpg. While his scoring (6.5 ppg) and rebounding (4.5 rpg) were decent for a freshman, fellow diaper dandies would have been glad to match his 1.4 bpg. The Jayhawks went 24-9 and lost to Georgia Tech in the Elite Eight, and Padgett transferred to Louisville during the off-season.
Aaron Brooks – Brooks stayed four years at Oregon and went through various ups and downs. After improving his stats across the board in his sophomore year, his junior season was a disappointment. Then he played well in his senior year to finish with solid career averages of 13.1 ppg and 83.3% shooting from the foul line. Brooks’ 4.1 apg and 1.1 spg showed that he was definitely a shoot-first guard, though. The Ducks went 76-42, losing to eventual national champ Florida in the Elite Eight in 2007.
Brandon Cotton – Cotton had a very brief, sad stay in East Lansing. He only played a total of 16 minutes over three games for the Spartans. After his uncle was shot and killed, Cotton decided to transfer to Detroit. For the sake of completeness, it should be noted that Michigan State went 18-12 that season, losing to Nevada in the first round of the Big Dance.
Brandon Bass – Bass had a good two-year run at LSU. His solid numbers included averages of 15.1 ppg, 77.9% shooting from the charity stripe, 8.2 rpg and 1.8 bpg. He also saw extensive action for the Tigers, as he averaged 34.3 mpg. LSU went 38-21 and never made it past the first round of the Big Dance, though. Bass was then selected by the Hornets in the second round of the 2005 NBA Draft.
Leon Powe – like Brooks, Powe’s college career had its highs and lows. He put up great numbers for Cal when he was healthy, including marks of 17.8 ppg and 9.8 rpg in 32.5 mpg. Unfortunately, knee surgery kept him out of the 2004-05 season. The Golden Bears went 33-26 in the two years that Powe suited up for them, never making it past the first round of the Big Dance. Powe was then selected by the Nuggets in the second round of the 2006 NBA Draft.
Brian Butch – it’s safe to say that in many respects, Butch’s career at Wisconsin was not spectacular. He took the atypical step of redshirting his freshman year. Then he put up pedestrian stats during his four years in Madison, including marks of 9.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg and 62.6% shooting from the foul line. His defenders will note that he put up these stats in only 20.0 mpg, though his detractors will ask why he didn’t receive extensive playing time. The Badgers went 105-32 and advanced to the Elite Eight in 2005, losing to eventual national champ North Carolina.
Mike Nardi – Nardi had a decent 4-year career for Villanova, playing in Jay Wright’s guard-friendly system. He put up 10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg and shot 82.6% from the foul line, though his 37.8% shooting from beyond the arc wasn’t quite up to snuff. The Wildcats benefited from his extensive time on the court (30.9 mpg) as they went 92-41, losing to eventual national champions North Carolina and Florida in the 2005 and 2006 editions of the Big Dance, respectively.
Mike Jones – Terrapins fans probably couldn’t have guessed that Jones would only put up 18.6 mpg when he signed on the dotted line for Gary Williams. On the bright side, his shooting averages of 43.2/41.0/80.2 were superb for an athletic wing guard. Maryland went 83-47 during Jones’ four years in College Park, never making it past the second round of the Big Dance. They did beat Duke to win the ACC Tournament in 2004.
Ekene Ibekwe – Ibekwe joined Jones in a recruiting class that definitely looked promising for the Terps back in 2003. Like Jones, he saw limited playing time, averaging 21.0 mpg during his four-year stay in College Park. While most of his stats were nothing to sneeze at, he did put up 6.1 rpg and 1.8 bpg.
Reasonable Expectations for Star Hoops Recruits – Part II April 1, 2009
Posted by flashbuzzer in Sports.Tags: 2002, college basketball, recruiting
1 comment so far
My previous post provided a synopsis of the college basketball careers of various members of the class of 2001.
This post focuses on players from the class of 2002. I recall that back in 2002, recruiting experts rated this class solidly behind its predecessor.
Again, many thanks to Statsheet for making this post possible.
Raymond Felton – Felton made an immediate impact at North Carolina and was the key cog on their 2005 national championship squad (it can be argued that he was more vital to the Tar Heels’ success than Sean May). He proved to be a superb floor general, averaging 6.9 apg and 1.9 spg over the course of his three-year stay in Chapel Hill. After leading Tar Heel Nation to a 71-31 record, the Bobcats selected him with the #5 pick in the 2005 NBA Draft.
Rashad McCants – McCants also played a vital role in the Tar Heels’ 2005 national title run, making this UNC recruiting hall a smashing success (May was also in this class). He was a fantastic scorer during his three-year college career, averaging 17.6 ppg and shooting 48.4% from the floor, along with a 41.4% mark from beyond the arc. This mercurial talent was then selected by the Timberwolves with the #14 pick in the 2005 NBA Draft.
Carmelo Anthony – Anthony’s one year at Syracuse was spectacular, to say the least. He put up awesome stats, including 22.2 ppg and 10.0 rpg; perhaps the best sign of his importance to the Orange was his 36.4 mpg mark. Anthony led the Orange to a sparkling 30-5 record and the national title in a thrilling 81-78 victory over Kansas. He was then selected by the Pistons with the #3 pick in the 2003 NBA Draft.
Paul Davis – Davis put up decent stats during his career at Michigan State, including marks of 13.2 ppg, 53.7% from the floor, 7.0 rpg and 1.1 spg. Unfortunately, he was never the best player on any of the four Spartans squads that he suited up for. Michigan State went 88-44 from 2002-06 and made it to the Big Dance each year, including Elite Eight and Final Four appearances in 2003 and 2005, respectively.
Daniel Horton – Horton put together a real four-year mixed bag with Michigan. Pros: he averaged 14.7 ppg and 1.7 spg. Cons: he only shot 39.5% from the floor and 35.7% from beyond the arc. The Wolverines went 76-52 and had only two NIT appearances to show for Horton’s time in Ann Arbor, though they did win the 2004 NIT title.
J.J. Redick – Redick finished his career as one of the best two-guards in college basketball history. A consummate winner, his four-year run at Duke included a record of 116-23 and three ACC Tournament titles. His well-documented scoring (19.9 ppg, including 26.0 ppg during his senior season), three-point (40.5%) and free-throw (91.1%) exploits made him a deadly offensive threat; the fact that the Blue Devils never won a national title tarnishes his legacy to some extent, though.
Chris Bosh – all of the hoopla surrounding Anthony obscures the fact that Bosh also had a great “one-and-done” college experience. He put up 15.6 ppg and 9.0 rpg for Georgia Tech, shooting 56% from the floor and 73% from the foul line. The Yellow Jackets only went 16-15 and missed the Big Dance, though. Bosh was then picked #4 overall in the 2003 NBA Draft by the Raptors.
Jason Fraser – though Fraser entered Villanova with plenty of hype, injuries ruined his career. He only put up 5.9 ppg and 5.8 rpg, averaging a paltry 20.4 mpg. The Wildcats did go 85-46 during his four-year stay in Philadelphia, though that sterling record was largely due to stars such as Randy Foye and Allan Ray. To Fraser’s credit, this New York Times article shows that Fraser definitely had plenty going for him off the court.
Anthony Roberson – “Peeper” proved to be a superb offensive threat during his three years in Gainesville, putting up 15.8 ppg and shooting 44.3/40.1/86.4. The Gators went 69-27 and won the 2005 SEC Tournament, beating Kentucky in the final. Florida never made it past the second round of the Big Dance during Roberson’s career, though; he then declared for the 2005 NBA Draft and went undrafted.
Bracey Wright – Wright had a reputation for being a superb long-range shooter, but he only shot 34.9% from beyond the arc during his three-year career for Indiana. His impact on the Hoosiers was debatable, as they went 50-42 and only made it to the Big Dance once, losing to Pittsburgh in the second round in 2003. On the bright side, he averaged 17.6 ppg and dished out 5.1 apg; he also averaged 35.7 mpg. Wright then declared for the 2005 NBA Draft and was picked in the second round by the Timberwolves.
Evan Burns – Burns had an interesting recruiting journey. He initially committed to UCLA, though he failed to gain admission and ended up at San Diego State. Burns’ one season with the Aztecs wasn’t spectacular; they went 16-14 and missed the Big Dance. While his offensive stats weren’t great, he proved to be a great defender, putting up 1.0 bpg and 1.2 spg in 22.4 mpg. Unfortunately, he became an academic casualty and was kicked off the team after the season.
Shelden Williams – the “Landlord” certainly lived up to his moniker during his 4-year run in Durham, averaging 9.1 rpg and 3.0 bpg. He even put up 1.2 spg and shot 57.1% from the floor to boot. As his career completely overlapped with Redick’s, he also went 116-23 during his college career. His high point at Duke came when the Blue Devils advanced to the Final Four in 2004, losing to eventual national champ Connecticut.
Torin Francis – Francis proved to be a mixed bag for Notre Dame during his 4-year career. On one hand, he grabbed 8.6 rpg and tallied 1.4 bpg. On the other hand, he only scored 11.3 ppg and shot 49.7% from the floor. The Irish went 76-49, only making it to the Big Dance in 2003 and losing in the Sweet 16 to Arizona. Francis was never close to being the best player on any of the four Irish squads that he suited up for.
Chris Rodgers – Rodgers never blossomed into the star that Wildcats fans expected him to become. He only put up 6.3 ppg and saw limited playing time, averaging 19.4 mpg. Arizona did go 98-34 during his 4-year career, though other players played a larger role in contributing to that sparkling mark. The Wildcats made it to the Elite Eight in 2003 and 2005.
Hassan Adams – one of those star Wildcats turned out to be Adams. Somehow he stayed four years in Tucson and stuffed the stat sheet in a variety of ways, including averages of 14.0 ppg, 49.9 fg%, 5.4 rpg and 1.8 spg. He was one of the stars on the Arizona squad that pushed top-ranked Illinois to the brink in their 2005 Elite Eight matchup. The Wildcats led the Illini by 15 with 4 minutes to play, and the rest is history.
Kennedy Winston – Winston proved to be a solid scorer during his three-year run in Tuscaloosa, averaging 16.2 ppg. The Crimson Tide went 61-33 during his career, including a spectacular run to the Elite Eight in 2004 that included a second-round upset of top-seeded Stanford. While Winston was the best player on the Tide throughout most of his career, his decision to declare for the 2005 NBA Draft was not vindicated.